The June edition of The Long View is attached — here’s what’s inside:
The OCR held, but only just. The 27 May MPS delivered a 3–3 split vote — the most hawkish hold on record. Governor Breman’s casting vote kept rates at 2.25%, but the market is now pricing a 75% probability of a hike on 9 July. If you have development or construction funding to arrange, the window to lock in current rates is narrowing.
The Strait of Hormuz is reopening — a US-Iran MOU was signed on 14 June — but recovery is slow, with 600 ships backlogged and diesel and steel costs still elevated through H2. Fix-price build contracts remain essential for any project breaking ground this year.
Stressed sales are at a record. Mortgagee listings hit 109 per quarter — the highest since tracking began — and distressed stock is selling at around 19% below market value. For well-capitalised developers and investors, this is a real opportunity, if you move with the right advice.
Budget 2026 delivered a $400M consent incentive — councils now earn more the more they consent. Fast-consent markets like Christchurch, Selwyn and Tauranga are the immediate beneficiaries.
