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Finance Intelligence Newsletter – The Long View, May 2026

I’ve just launched The Long View — a monthly finance intelligence newsletter I put together for developers and builders in the NZ market. It covers interest rates, construction costs, consent data and market snapshots for Auckland and Christchurch, with a Developer’s Tip each month. Thought you’d find it a useful read given what you’re working on.

If there’s ever anything I can help with on the finance side — whether it’s a new deal, refinancing, or just a second opinion on structure — feel free to give me a call. Always happy to have a chat.

I’ll be sending this out monthly — if you’d prefer not to receive it, just let me know and I’ll take you off the list. No hard feelings at all.

Michael Long

Finance Intelligence Newsletter – The Long View, June 2026

Written by Michael Long

The June edition of The Long View is attached — here’s what’s inside:

The OCR held, but only just. The 27 May MPS delivered a 3–3 split vote — the most hawkish hold on record. Governor Breman’s casting vote kept rates at 2.25%, but the market is now pricing a 75% probability of a hike on 9 July. If you have development or construction funding to arrange, the window to lock in current rates is narrowing.

The Strait of Hormuz is reopening — a US-Iran MOU was signed on 14 June — but recovery is slow, with 600 ships backlogged and diesel and steel costs still elevated through H2. Fix-price build contracts remain essential for any project breaking ground this year.

Stressed sales are at a record. Mortgagee listings hit 109 per quarter — the highest since tracking began — and distressed stock is selling at around 19% below market value. For well-capitalised developers and investors, this is a real opportunity, if you move with the right advice.

Budget 2026 delivered a $400M consent incentive — councils now earn more the more they consent. Fast-consent markets like Christchurch, Selwyn and Tauranga are the immediate beneficiaries.

Finance Intelligence Newsletter – The Long View, July 2026

Written by Michael Long

The July edition of The Long View is attached — here’s what’s inside:

RBNZ delivered the flagged hike. OCR up 25 bps to 2.50% on 8 July, unanimous after May’s 3–3 split. All four major banks lifted floating rates +25 bps within days; next MPS isn’t until 2 September, but economists now see 2-3 more hikes coming.

The Hormuz truce collapsed the same day — Brent has surged from ~$72 to $88.10 in ten days. Fuel and steel repricing risk is back for H2 — fix-price contracts remain essential.

Building consents confirmed a genuine rebound. 39,737 dwellings consented in the year to May (+19%), Auckland +22% and Canterbury +30% the biggest movers.

Non-bank lenders sit outside the RBNZ’s new bank-only DTI limits — a genuine structural edge for development finance, alongside the FMA’s 1 July takeover of consumer credit regulation.

The full data — rates tables, Auckland and Christchurch market breakdowns, building consents, Economist Watch, Migration — are all in the newsletter.

As always, if any of it prompts a question about your project or funding position, I’m a phone call away.