The July edition of The Long View is attached — here’s what’s inside:
RBNZ delivered the flagged hike. OCR up 25 bps to 2.50% on 8 July, unanimous after May’s 3–3 split. All four major banks lifted floating rates +25 bps within days; next MPS isn’t until 2 September, but economists now see 2-3 more hikes coming.
The Hormuz truce collapsed the same day — Brent has surged from ~$72 to $88.10 in ten days. Fuel and steel repricing risk is back for H2 — fix-price contracts remain essential.
Building consents confirmed a genuine rebound. 39,737 dwellings consented in the year to May (+19%), Auckland +22% and Canterbury +30% the biggest movers.
Non-bank lenders sit outside the RBNZ’s new bank-only DTI limits — a genuine structural edge for development finance, alongside the FMA’s 1 July takeover of consumer credit regulation.
The full data — rates tables, Auckland and Christchurch market breakdowns, building consents, Economist Watch, Migration — are all in the newsletter.
As always, if any of it prompts a question about your project or funding position, I’m a phone call away.
